RFA Breakfast Paper - July 29, 2026

South Africa's Private Sector Credit Growth Slows Further in June

Private sector credit in South Africa increased 7.80% year-on-year in June 2026, slowing from 8.57% in May and marking the weakest pace of credit growth since November 2025. The moderation suggests that borrowing activity by households and businesses continued to soften, reflecting tighter financial conditions and cautious lending demand despite resilient credit expansion. While credit growth remains well above the historical average pace of economic activity, it has eased steadily in recent months, indicating that higher interest rates and elevated inflation may be weighing on credit demand. Historically, South Africa's private sector credit growth has averaged 12.71% since 1966, reaching a record high of 35.88% in July 1981 and a record low of -2.35% in May 1966. The latest figures point to a gradual cooling in credit creation, which could help moderate inflationary pressures but may also signal softer domestic demand and slower economic momentum in the months ahead..

U.S. Equity Markets Decline as Rising Oil Prices and Treasury Yields Weigh on Sentiment

U.S. equity markets closed sharply lower on Wednesday as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising long-term Treasury yields dampened investor sentiment. Iran launched a missile strike on a U.S. military base in Jordan that was intercepted, prompting President Donald Trump to signal potential retaliation and raising concerns over a renewed escalation in the conflict. The heightened uncertainty pushed WTI crude oil prices up 7% to around $85 per barrel, lifting energy stocks but weighing on the broader market as investors reassessed the outlook for inflation following the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Investors also turned their attention to a pivotal stretch of the earnings season, with Microsoft and Meta scheduled to report after the market close, followed by Apple and Amazon the next day. These results are expected to provide further insight into corporate earnings momentum, AI-related investment, and the outlook for technology stocks amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.

NGX Retreats as Banking Stocks Lead Broad-Based Decline

The Nigerian equity market closed lower on Wednesday as renewed profit-taking in mid-cap and blue-chip stocks erased the previous session's gains and weighed on investor sentiment. Selling pressure was broad-based, with four of the five major sectors ending in negative territory, led by weakness in banking stocks. Consequently, the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declined by 1,004.38 basis points, or 0.41%, to close at 246,980.17, while market capitalization fell by ₦647.99 billion to ₦159.34 trillion. The pullback suggests investors remained inclined to lock in recent gains following the market's strong performance earlier in the week. Trading activity was mixed during the session, with total trading volume increasing by 12.11% to 758.88 million shares, while the value of transactions declined by 7.23% to ₦33.79 billion across 55,251 deals. Sectoral performance was largely negative, with the Banking, Industrial Goods, Oil & Gas, and Consumer Goods sectors closing lower, while the Insurance sector was the only major gainer. The combination of higher trading volumes and broad-based declines points to active profit-taking, although selective buying interest remained evident in insurance stocks.