RFA Breakfast Paper - September 17, 2026
South Africa Consumer Confidence Improves but Spending Outlook Remains Weak
The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index for South Africa rose to -13 in Q3 2026 from -19 in Q2, marking a modest recovery from the lowest reading since Q1 2025. The improvement was driven primarily by stronger confidence among lower-income households, which have been less exposed to recent interest-rate increases and benefited from easing food-price pressures. However, confidence among high-income consumers, who account for a larger share of overall household spending, remained particularly weak, limiting the broader improvement in sentiment. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and the potential for higher interest rates is expected to weigh on consumer spending in the months ahead. With households likely to remain focused on essential purchases and value for money ahead of the festive season, the outlook points to continued subdued consumer spending growth and a more cautious retail environment.
U.S. Equity Markets Rebound as Jobless Claims Fall to Two-Year Low
U.S. equity markets closed higher on Thursday as easing Treasury yields and oil prices supported sentiment. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.93%, while WTI crude declined to around $101 per barrel amid reports that Saudi Arabia could increase supply through alternative export routes. The softer oil price eased near-term inflation concerns, while the dollar weakened modestly alongside yields. Initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 from 206,000 expected, marking their lowest level in two years. Continuing claims also declined to 1.73 million, below the 1.77 million forecast and their lowest since January 2024. The figures suggest layoffs remain contained and the labour market continues to show resilience, supporting household income and consumer spending while allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain its focus on inflation.
NGX Extends Winning Streak as Industrial Goods Leads Gains
The Nigerian equity market extended its positive run to a sixth consecutive session, with the NGX-ASI rising 0.62% to 246,315.38. Market Capitalization increased 0.74% to ₦159.89 trillion, reflecting the additional listing of 26.56 billion Abbey Mortgage Bank shares at ₦2.43 per share following its private placement. Sustained bargain hunting in mid- and large-cap stocks supported the advance, with Industrial Goods leading sector gains. Trading activity strengthened, with total volume and value traded rising 67.79% and 22.89%, respectively. About 1.11 billion units worth ₦46.02 billion changed hands across 54,102 deals. Three of five major sectors advanced, led by Industrial Goods, Insurance and Banking. Consumer Goods declined, while Oil & Gas was broadly flat, leaving the broader market higher despite mixed sectoral performance.
