RFA Breakfast Paper - October 15, 2026
Nigeria’s Inflation Slows to 14.63%
Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 14.63% y/y in September from 15.39% in August, the NBS reported on Thursday, a fourth consecutive monthly decline and below the 15.40–15.65% range analysts had forecast. Month-on-month inflation slowed to 0.06% from 0.71%, as food prices fell 1.55% m/m on cheaper grains, rice, tomatoes and other staples; annual food inflation stood at 19.59%. The detail is less benign. Core inflation rose 1.11% m/m after -0.06% in August, and urban prices accelerated to 0.53% m/m even as rural prices fell. For investors, the headline print keeps real policy rates firmly positive against the CBN’s 23% MPR and supports the naira, which held near ₦1,331/$. The rebound in core, however, argues for caution before pricing in further rate cuts.
Stocks Rebound as Treasury Yields Fall
U.S. stocks recovered from Wednesday’s CPI-driven sell-off. The S&P 500 rose 0.33% and the Dow 1.08%, while the Russell 2000 gained 1.38%; the Nasdaq added only 0.08% as AI-infrastructure and chip stocks lagged. Treasuries rallied despite a hot September PPI (+1.3% m/m, +6.3% y/y), with the 10-year yield falling about 10bps to 5.09%. Health care, materials and financials led. With CPI and PPI both above forecast, a hike at the 27–28 October FOMC is now a live risk, though markets still lean towards a hold.
Aradel Lifts NGX to Second Straight Gain
The NGX All-Share Index edged up 0.01% to 247,707.13 on Thursday, a second straight gain, lifting market capitalisation by ₦21.74bn to ₦160.83trn. Energy carried the session: the NGX Oil/Gas Index rose 2.64% as Aradel Holdings jumped 7.14% to ₦1,499.90 and Oando gained 1.16% to ₦34.95. The Banking Index rose 0.23% on gains in ETI, First HoldCo, Fidelity and UBA. These advances were largely offset by a 2.84% fall in MTN Nigeria to ₦820.00, which pulled the Premium Index down 0.69%. Breadth was positive at 26 gainers to 24 decliners, but activity thinned, with volume down 8.96% to 286.68m shares. Gains remain narrow and concentrated in oil heavyweights.
