RFA Breakfast Paper - October 13, 2026
IMF Lifts Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Outlook
The IMF raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 4.2% in its October World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday, and kept its 2027 projection at 4.3%. The Fund credited improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade for an oil exporter, a week after the World Bank lifted its own 2026 estimate to 4.3%. Both sit close to the 4.43% year-on-year GDP growth the NBS reported for Q2’26. The upgrade came with a warning: rising food and energy prices are deepening poverty, and the IMF urged temporary, targeted cash transfers funded through better spending and revenue rather than broad subsidies. For investors, the revision supports the sovereign credit story alongside gross reserves above $55 billion and the CBN’s 350bp cut to 23%. The near-term test is September CPI, due Thursday, after August’s 15.39%.
Chip Weakness Caps Bank Earnings Lift
U.S. stocks ended little changed on Tuesday as memory-chip weakness offset strong bank results. The S&P 500 slipped 0.02%, the Nasdaq fell 0.15% and the Dow lost 0.35% after giving back an early 500-point gain. Micron and other memory names slid on reports that China’s CXMT had advanced its chip technology. Goldman Sachs earned $17.01 a share against about $13 expected, while JPMorgan missed at $5.57. Johnson & Johnson fell on a $5.5 billion talc charge. The 10-year yield eased 2.7bps to 5.22% ahead of today’s September CPI, a key input for the Fed’s next move.
Banks Drag NGX Lower for Second Day
The NGX All-Share Index fell 0.09% to 247,513.63 on Tuesday, its lowest close in five sessions, as market capitalisation slipped ₦144.54 billion to ₦160.71 trillion. Banks led the decline for a second day: the Banking Index dropped 0.79% to 2,547.15 on losses in Wema Bank (-2.58%), First HoldCo (-2.25%), GTCO (-1.77%), Access Holdings (-0.88%) and Zenith Bank (-0.78%), while the NGX 30 eased 0.12%. Consumer Goods (+0.14%) and Oil & Gas (+0.11%) cushioned the fall, helped by Nigerian Breweries and Oando. eTranzact (+9.96%) led gainers; Legend Internet (-6.85%) led losers. Volume eased 2.76% to 394.16 million shares across 38,660 deals.
