RFA Breakfast Paper - August 31, 2026

Nigeria’s Q2 GDP Growth Quickens to 4.43%

Nigeria’s economy expanded 4.43% year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics reported on Monday, up from 4.23% a year earlier and the strongest quarterly pace in several years. Services led the way, growing 4.60% and accounting for 56.62% of aggregate output, while agriculture accelerated to 4.39% from 2.82% a year earlier on better harvests and improved rural security. Industry slowed to 3.96% from 7.46%, though average crude output rose to 1.72 million barrels per day from 1.68 mbpd, the highest second-quarter level since 2022. The data confirm that growth is broadening beyond oil, reinforcing macro stability as the naira holds near ₦1,332/$ and headline inflation eases to 15.43%.

U.S. Stocks Slip as Rate-Hike Bets Build

U.S. equities slipped on Monday even as all three major averages closed out August with monthly gains. The S&P 500 fell 0.33% to 7,686.14 and the Nasdaq Composite eased 0.12% to 26,370.89, while the Dow shed 374 points, or 0.70%. Fresh U.S.-Iran strikes near the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent crude up 2.84% to $90.60, stoking inflation concerns just as Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish tone lifted September rate-hike odds above 65%. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.76%, its highest since January 2025.

NGX Ends August with Month-End Rally

The Nigerian Exchange ended August on a firm note, with the All-Share Index rising 1.20% on Monday to 244,199.39 and market capitalisation adding about ₦1.91 trillion to ₦157.74 trillion. Breadth was strongly positive at 44 advancers to 19 decliners, as 606.13 million shares worth ₦38.66 billion changed hands in 53,364 deals. Buying concentrated in banking, consumer goods and oil names, lifting the Banking Index 3.11% and the NGX 30 by 1.03%. Sentiment stayed supported by Nigeria’s confirmed return to FTSE Frontier Market status on 21 September, trimming the market’s August loss to 0.44%.