RFA Breakfast Paper - April 9, 2026

Egypt Inflation Jumps to 15.2% as Fuel Price Hike Bites

Annual urban inflation in Egypt accelerated sharply to 15.2% in March 2026 from 13.4% in February, coming in well above expectations and marking the highest level since May 2025. The spike was largely driven by higher global oil prices and a domestic fuel price hike of 14%–17% implemented early in the month. Price pressures intensified across key categories, particularly transport (39.4% vs 27.5%), alongside increases in food (5.8% vs 4.6%), housing and utilities (35.3% vs 31.7%), and restaurants and hotels (12.8% vs 11.9%). Additional upward momentum was seen in clothing and footwear, miscellaneous goods and services, and household equipment, while inflation eased slightly in health and recreation, and remained unchanged in communications (0.4%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 3.2%, up from 2.8% in February, marking the fastest monthly increase since February 2023 and underscoring renewed inflationary pressures.

Global Markets Advance as Ceasefire Developments and Oil Volatility Drive Markets

Global equity markets closed higher on Thursday as investors navigated mixed signals tied to the evolving U.S.–Iran ceasefire. Gains were led by consumer discretionary and industrial stocks, reflecting a modest improvement in risk appetite despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty. At the same time, Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.29%, suggesting that markets continue to price in resilient economic conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment. However, the global backdrop remained less supportive, as Asian markets declined overnight and European equities traded lower, pointing to uneven sentiment across regions. The U.S. dollar also weakened against major currencies, adding another layer to cross-asset movements. In energy markets, oil prices rebounded sharply, with WTI crude approaching $99 per barrel amid supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz linked to disagreements over ceasefire terms. While the near-term price spike reflects geopolitical risk, futures markets indicate that investors expect the disruption to be temporary. Current pricing suggests oil could ease back toward the mid-$70 range by year-end if tensions de-escalate and supply normalizes, limiting the longer-term inflationary impact on U.S. markets.

Nigerian Equities Extend Gains as Corporate Actions Spur Selective Buying

The Nigerian equity market closed higher, with the NGX All-Share Index and market capitalization advancing by 0.28% amid sustained investor optimism. Corporate action releases continued to drive bargain hunting in mid-cap and blue-chip stocks such as ARADEL, WAPCO, ZENITHBANK, and GTCO, supporting gains across sectors. The All-Share Index rose by 576.93 basis points to 203,161.81, while market capitalization increased by ₦369.75 billion to ₦130.77 trillion, reflecting confidence in fundamentally strong equities. Despite the uptick, trading activity weakened as volume and value declined by 35.17% and 1.84%, respectively, with 652.86 million shares worth ₦39.82 billion traded. ACCESSCORP led volumes, while GTCO dominated value. TRANSEXPR topped gainers, while LIVINGTRUST recorded the steepest loss. Market breadth closed negative with 31 losers versus 29 gainers, although all major sectors posted gains, led by banking and insurance.