RFA Breakfast Paper - April 1, 2026

Nigeria PMI Slows to 51.9 as Cost Pressures Rise

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI eased to 51.9 in March 2026 from 53.2 in February, remaining above the 50 threshold and signaling continued expansion, albeit at a slower pace. Output growth softened as rising fuel costs constrained production, while new orders remained strong, supported by resilient demand and new product launches. Sector performance was mixed, with gains in agriculture and wholesale & retail, but declines in manufacturing and services. Employment rose for a tenth consecutive month, though at a slower rate, while firms increased purchasing activity with only modest inventory buildup. However, inflationary pressures intensified, with input costs rising at the fastest pace in 15 months and selling prices reaching their highest level since December 2024. Despite this, business sentiment remained positive, though it slipped to a four-month low, reflecting cautious optimism in Nigeria.

U.S. Stocks Extend Gains on De-escalation Hopes and Strong Economic Data

Major equity indexes started the new month and quarter higher, building on the S&P 500’s strongest rally since May 2025. Markets were supported by comments from President Trump suggesting the Iran conflict could end within weeks, raising expectations of de-escalation. Oil prices declined, with WTI crude falling below $100 per barrel, though disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist. Meanwhile, bond yields edged higher following stronger-than-expected economic data, reflecting continued resilience in the economy.

Recent data pointed to solid underlying momentum. Retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, beating expectations, while core (control group) sales also posted a strong 0.5% gain, signaling healthy consumer spending. On the labor front, private payrolls increased by 62,000, above forecasts, suggesting stabilization in hiring. Wage growth remained firm, particularly for job changers, reinforcing the view of a resilient consumer and labormarket despite emerging energy-related headwinds.

Nigerian Stocks Rise as New Listings and Bargain Hunting Lift Market

The Nigerian equity market opened the month on a positive note, with the NGX All-Share Index gaining 0.21% and Market Capitalization rising by a stronger 0.46%. The divergence was largely driven by fresh listings, including shares from VFD Group and FCMB Group Plc, which boosted overall market value. The index advanced by 415.77 points to close at 201,703.55, while market capitalization increased by ₦599.41 billion to ₦129.81 trillion. Investor sentiment was further supported by bargain hunting in select medium and blue-chip stocks as positioning for dividend payouts continued.

Trading activity was mixed, with volume declining while value traded rose significantly, indicating stronger participation in high-value stocks. GTCO led in value traded, while WEMABANK topped volume. Despite the market’s gain, breadth closed negative, with 41 losers outweighing 21 gainers. ZENITHBANK and GTCO were among top performers, while NESTLE featured among the laggards. Sector performance was broadly positive, led by Banking, though losses in Consumer Goods and Oil & Gas sectors highlighted underlying caution.